This week, February 25th 2103;
On Friday as it appears now the $85B in automatic spending cuts will go into effect. A lot of talk and slings and arrows between the two political parties has not led to any effort to avoid the cuts. Does it really matter? Given the movements in US and global stock markets, it doesn’t look like investors care much. The global equity markets continue to improve and US interest rate markets have seen little change over the last three weeks. Global markets believe that in the next week or so there will be a deal worked out that will rectify the automatic cuts. The 10 yr note and MBSs have seen very little change in the last few weeks; the 10 yr note yield trading in a 10 basis point yield range and MBSs in about a 6 bp range on the rates.
Treasury will begin auctioning $99B of notes Monday with $35b of 2 year notes, Tuesday $35B of 5 yr notes and Wednesday $29B of 7 year notes. The economic calendar has a number of key data points; nothing on Monday, Tuesday Jan new home sales, Wednesday Feb consumer confidence and Jan pending home sales, Thursday the 2nd look at Q4 GDP that is expected to be revised higher to +0.5% from -0.1% on the advance report, Friday the Feb ISM manufacturing index. Those are the main points this week. Along with them personal income and spending for Jan and weekly jobless claims.
The bond market and mortgage market continue with a slight bearish outlook; most all of our models remain bearish, however the strength of the bear has lessened over the last week. The 10 yr has very solid resistance at 2.05%; until the note can decline under 1.95% the outlook remains neutral at best. A close over 2.05% on the 10 will trigger more selling and a run up of about 10 more basis points in the rate.
What does this mean? Treasury Markets are trying to push through the ceiling of 2.05% and if and when they do, we will see mortgage rates rise. With this Friday approaching and the Government finishing up its last minute Fiscal Cliff items, the mortgage rate markets should remain flat this week.
Have a Wonderful Day!
Bill Nickerson
Vice President Mortgage Network Inc
179 Great Road, Acton MA 01720
978.273.3227
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