Friday, November 5, 2010

Drama and The Economy

Here we go again…In the US, we tend to be a little dramatic.  Whether you get you news from the morning gossip shows on NBC, CBS or ABC or you go to the other extreme to WSJ or Bloomberg.  None the less, they all say the same thing.  After today’s employment figures showed the US finding 151,000 new jobs, we are back on track to a big and healthy economy..Right?   Unemployment still remains at 9.6% which it has been for over a year now.  Over 80 economists that were surveyed about the jobs report, were wrong!  That’s right, they were wrong, it’s like being a meteorologist in New England,  I think we will have a 50% chance of Sun or Rain today.  Today we will see a short lived rally in the Stock Markets and we will see securities suffer (bonds, treasuries and mortgage rates).  This will be a false rally today we will see on Wall Street, and yet the news media will run with this and again, the real consumers on Main Street will be affected!

The piece we tend to overlook is that 14.8 million people are still out of work today.  It’s almost if ALL news media is not allowed to print or say the economy is bad or still suffering.  Here is the number to think about…It will take over 6 years at a rate of 200,000 new jobs per month (which is aggressive) for the unemployment numbers to back to down to a place where we can sustain positive growth.

The most important part of the economy is the housing market, it is also one of the largest parts of the economy that creates employment,  without it,  we cannot move forward.  Until consumers start buying homes or the banking guidelines relax enough to allow those to refinance their current mortgage, we will not be able to create new jobs or free up cash.  With house prices at an all time low, mortgages rates at a level we have not seen since the 1950’s…It’s time to buy a home.  Come on America, you can do it.  Go buy house today!!!

Bill Nickerson

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