Friday, December 9, 2011

Common Sense Isn't Common Practice

From the KCM Blog:

It used to be that there was logic applied in the world of mortgage lending. An appraiser determined the value of a home by the axiom, “what a reasonable buyer would pay a reasonable seller”. An underwriter weighed the plusses and minuses of a file (after analyzing the income, the assets, the credit profile and the appraisal) and made a judgment call based on their experience.

Loans with sizable down payments used to be more flexible with how income was documented or what quality of credit was required. Even the decision of what made up “good credit” has been reduced to a FICO score. Determining the risk of a loan affected its approval or denial. Further, loans deemed riskier were given less favorable terms (higher rates and/or costs or larger down payments).

But today, everyone has tried to quantify everything and put everything into a matrix. Credit scores are numerical, and the number determines eligibility and cost. Gone is the concept of explaining why you have defects in your credit. We don’t care why, we just look at your score. Appraisers now are being scored and their data being scrutinized to a level most would find mind-boggling. Amenities that make a home worth more for a particular buyer (like a pool or upgraded basement) are virtually ignored. Underwriters have primarily become fact-checkers and quality control as a computer software program underwrites the vast majority of mortgages today.

Gone is common sense. It has been replaced by numerical formulas and a cover-my-behind, justify-everything-with-data mentality. Basically, the pendulum has swung too far. It used to be that lending was too easy (see the subprime debacle), but now we have eliminated too much of the human element. We need common sense back.

·         People who have saved 30% for a down payment know what they can afford monthly. Don’t they?

·         People who had a medical challenge two years ago that is not likely to reappear should not have a twenty year credit history destroyed. Should they?

·         People aren’t likely to overpay for a home with so much inventory and all the media exposure about falling prices. Are they?

·         Bring back some common sense when we need it most!

From the KCM Blog:   http://www.kcmblog.com/2011/12/08/common-sense-isn%E2%80%99t-common-practice/

Bill Nickerson

Vice President Mortgage Network

179 Great Road Suite 214, Acton MA 01720

978-399-1313

Bill's Blog

Providing Mortgages Since 1991

NMLS # 4194

Commercial   Residential     Reverse FHA/VA

Posted via email from Bill's Mortgage News

Monday, December 5, 2011

Mortgage Rates and Europe

This Week; it will continue to be on what happens in Europe with the debt issues. It is not going to fall off the front page for our markets for many months; on Friday the leaders in Europe are scheduled to meeting on Friday. Markets are hoping there will be some kind of plan that emerges to deal with the debts of Spain and Italy but after two years of trying it is a leap of faith to expect anything substantive coming from the meeting. Not much in the way of key economic readings this week; Monday the Nov ISM services sector index and weekly jobless claims on Friday are the only serious data points.

 

Technically and fundamentally the US interest rate markets remain in narrow trading ranges; the 10 yr note still unable to hold under 2.00% but does find support anytime the yield climbs to 2.12% as it did last week. Mortgage rates and prices trading a even narrower ranges; the price on the 3.5 FNMA coupon has held in a 50 basis point price range now for almost a month. The week will continue to work off how equity markets, stock indexes higher---bond and mortgage prices lower. We remain skeptical that US interest rates will decline much from these levels, the larger outlook is that rates will begin to slowly increase from present levels.

For more information about mortgages and the housing markets, please call or email me anytime.

Bill Nickerson

Vice President Mortgage Network

179 Great Road Suite 214, Acton MA 01720

978-399-1313

Bill's Blog

Providing Mortgages Since 1991

NMLS # 4194

Commercial   Residential     Reverse FHA/VA

Posted via email from Bill's Mortgage News

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

"The Only Thing We Have to Fear is Fear Itself"

The “Books” say an average business cycle is 44.4 months and we have lived through many of them. Some longer than that and some as short as a season in New England.  A business cycle is like the exhibit from our youth…“What makes an ocean wave, wave” at the New England Aquarium.  In the exhibit, you get to move the wave with a lever and if you move the lever too much you have to pull it back as the wave comes crashing down…and again, you go too far the other way and the wave crashes in the other direction.  It’s impossible to control an ocean wave.  So here we are now in the middle of a business cycle “The Ocean Wave”. 

As Americans we do the same thing.  When we feel confident and wealthy, we tend to spend a little too much; perhaps buy a car that has all the bells and whistles or buy the  house we all dreamed of or even dined at the newest expensive restaurant we’ve never been to… building up that ocean wave.  We did this as a nation and created a very large wave.  We are in the “Trough” of the business cycle which is like a dead calm in the sea.  Nothing moves.  We are paralyzed by our own actions and cannot find a direction to get back…there is just no wind for our sails.  As individuals, we are going through our own personal process of what will get us back on track.  In some cases, we cancel our vacations, limit the activities our children participate in at school or even bring lunch every day.  By drastically cutting our spending, we have moved the “wave” too far in the other direction thus hurting the economy even further.  Not only have we given up those fancy dinners…we are not even going to the local diner for the blue plate special.

Consumer confidence is measured at an all-time low today and we are letting our emotions and fear govern our decisions and actions.  The News Media has the ability to heighten this fear by focusing on the negative and over emphasizing the issues at hand.   As FDR said, “The only thing we have to fear is Fear itself”.  This speech was given in 1933 in the middle of one of the biggest bank panics of the century which followed the Stock Market Crash of 1929.  There was a “RUN” on the banks where consumers wanted to withdraw all of the cash they had in the banks for fear it would be gone.  The banks had lent this money out for loans, mortgages etc. and the banks quickly ran out of cash.  FDR implemented the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation “FDIC” that to this day insures our deposits up to $250,000.  This speech did spark a generation as well as the economy, and it was backed by a plan of how to get us moving as a country.  Today, we do not look up to our leaders.   And as of this moment, we do not have a plan of how to get out of the economic turmoil we are in.  So as a strong country, we must take matters in our own hands and move ahead…full steam ahead.

We are in a very unique situation in the economy: Mortgage rates are creating new historical lows every day, house prices are nearing levels of value we have not seen since 2004.  As we always do, we will look back on this day and say, “I wish I had bought that home, or vacation house or even that investment property”.  Trust me; it happens every time we go through these business cycles.  As I mentioned earlier, we are letting our emotions govern our business decisions.  That is not allowed in business.  It’s business and there is no crying in business!!  Remember the saying “Buy Low and Sell High”.  This is not just some catch phrase.  It is a sound business decision that should be followed regardless of your emotional ties. 

So what do we do now? 

·         Keep spending but in a healthy way.  Make sound buying decisions based on needs versus wants.  By putting some money back into the economy, we will slowly recover.

·         Look to your advisors!!  Not your friends or family, but your financial advisors.  This would be the person that handles your investments, your banking, and your estate.  These are professionals that do this time and time again all day every day. 

·         Be patient.  Throughout history we have experienced turbulent times in the business cycle.  And we have pulled out of it.  In the words of Warren Buffett, “Americans are in a cycle of fear which leads to people not wanting to spend and not wanting to make investments, and that leads to more fear. We'll break out of it. It takes time.”

Bill Nickerson

Vice President Mortgage Network

179 Great Road Suite 214, Acton MA 01720

978-399-1313

Providing Mortgages Since 1991

NMLS # 4194

Commercial   Residential     Reverse FHA/VA

Posted via email from Bill's Mortgage News

Monday, August 8, 2011

Mortgage Rates Improve on the downgrade of the US Credit Rating

You know by now S&P late Friday lowered the US credit rating to AA+ frm AAA; treasuries and mortgages markets opening better today on safety and panic moves while the stock market is being hit hard on the open. S&P has been warning for weeks it was preparing to lower the credit rating, the next thing in the ratings game is that Moody's and Fitch may follow in the next few weeks. What is the real impact? Initially equity markets will be pressured and interest rates will benefit, in the long run S&P has done us a great service in making the move. Congress and the Administration clearly demonstrated they are not willing to make any significant hard choices, maybe the cut in our rating (which is more symbolic than substantive) will shake up voters and politicians that the country is headed for a debt cliff at 100 miles and hour. Lets not get too worked up over S&P move, the US can pay our debts, the country is still the economic engine for the world, and compared to any other country the US is in every respect the strongest and safest place to invest. Don't fall into the camp that is spending the early part of the morning comparing our new credit rating to places like France and other so-called AAA countries.

 

Tim Geithner out this morning castigating S&P for their decision; Geithner and the Administration are wrong. The downgrade isn't going to matter much, markets understand exactly where the US stands and won't, in the long run, make much of this except that it may help drive home the point the country is on the wrong path and must get serious about the growing debt. S&P can be criticized for the move, the agency has little credibility in our view after being primarily responsible for the subprime disaster that triggered the global financial meltdown. The agency rated CDOs made up of junk mortgages AAA, then after Wall Street couldn't sell the highest risk tranches of the CDOs, it rated the worst of the junk AAA again. If S&P couldn't understand junk mortgages why does anyone expect they know what they are into now? 

 

There are no economic reports today.

 

This week has little in the way of data to deal with but there is plenty for the bond and equity markets to think about. Tuesday the FOMC meets and has a lot to talk about, a weakening economic outlook and the rating cut. Treasury will auction $32B of 3 yr notes Tuesday, $24b of 10 yr notes Wednesday, and $16B of 30 yr bonds on Thursday. On Friday July retail sales are expected up 0.5%, ex autos +0.2%. Also on Friday the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected down to 62.5 frm 63.7, likely that will be revised lower now with the S&P move. 

 

Crude oil falling again, gold up over $1700.00. The stock market opening very weak as investors are totally over doing the situation. The stock market is of course reacting to the economic slowdown but also this morning investors just dumping everything they can. All of it in the early going is a reaction to S&P which as noted, in our judgment not as big a deal as it seems to be in markets.  

 

At 9:30 the DJIA opened -210, NASDAQ -85, S&P -22; 10 yr note +26/32 2.47% -11 bp and mortgage prices +7/32 (.22 bp)

 

The early going is volatile, lets keep our heads though. Mortgages are better but lagging the 10 yr and treasuries in general. Equity markets will drive treasuries through the day; with the FOMC meeting tomorrow and the weakened economic outlook stocks are struggling. Technically the stock market is very oversold in the near term, the bond market overbought. Fundamentally the outlook for the economy is weakening. Over-extended technical’s but the fundamentals are presently over-riding what normally would be improving equities and lower prices on treasuries. As long as panic dominates technical indicators have to take a back seat.

Bill Nickerson

Vice President Mortgage Network

179 Great Road Suite 214, Acton MA 01720

978-399-1313

Bill's Blog

Providing Mortgages Since 1991

NMLS # 4194

Commercial   Residential     Reverse FHA/VA

Posted via email from Bill's Mortgage News

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Mortgage Rates Improve on more bad Economic news...

Treasuries and mortgage markets were rallying early and got an additional boost at 8:30 on weekly jobless claims. Claims were thought to be about unchanged, as reported up 9K to 429K, the 11th week in a row over the key 400K level. Labor said six states were "estimated" due to computer issues so we don't really know what impact that might have had on the data. The data this week is the data that will be used to get to the employment data for the month of June.  Last week's claims were revised higher, to 420K from 414K. Continuing claims were about unchanged, from 3.698 mil to 3.697 mil. The 4 wk moving average on claims was unchanged. The slightly weaker report added to the rally moving the 10 yr note from +12/32 to +18/32 on the initial reaction. The stock market was hit yesterday, the DJIA down 80, at 8:45 this morning the index traded down 86 points and falling.

 

Yesterday Ben Bernanke and the FOMC meeting confirmed what most had known for two months, the US economy isn't growing much. The Fed lowered its outlook for GDP to +2.7% this year; earlier this yr the Fed was forecasting 4.0% growth but has been lowering the forecast at each FOMC meeting since Feb. Bernanke's press conference is shaking the economic bulls both late yesterday and this morning. For all the debate and discussions about the economy it is becoming more difficult to paint lipstick on the outlook. We have warned for months the economy won't grow much as long as confidence levels remain low.

 

The FOMC policy statement, its revisions for GDP growth less than previous, and Bernanke's press conference yesterday have cast an "official" pall on markets. Most traders had already recognized the economic slide, now with the Fed joining in the current sentiment has sunk to a new recent low. Increasing concerns of weakness in the outlook were confirmed by the Fed, the final so-called authority.

 

The decline in confidence in Washington is multiplying rapidly, as it does businesses are less willing to hire and consumers less willing to spend. It should be apparent now that consumers are smarter than most in Washington, getting their budgets under control. In the past consumers were responsible for 70% of GDP, over the next year or two if the economy is to gain growth it will rest on US exports. The short response to that, the US cannot grow if we have to rely on increasing exports.

 

At 9:00 the IEA (International Energy Agency) held an emergency press conference. The IEA is going to release 60 million barrels of oil to make a move to revive the global economies that are slipping quickly; 2 mill barrels a day for the next 30 days. America will release 30 mil of the total. In Europe sovereign debt problems continue to drag on worsening its outlook. Oil prices at 9:15 down $4.30 (see below for 10:00 level); gold is being slammed this morning on the dollar strength, down $28.00.

 

The dollar rose against all of its 16 major counterparts after Bernanke signaled yesterday that the central bank won’t add to stimulus measures that could erode the value of the currency. The euro weakened against the greenback before European leaders begin a two-day summit in Brussels today to discuss Greece’s financing needs as the nation struggles to stave off default. That the EU, IMF and Germany and France and Greece cannot get to finality is evidence that Europe's debt problems spread far more than just Greece and the tenuous condition facing the EU and its currency. How the Greek situation is resolved will likely set the tone for Spain, Ireland and Portugal and possibly Italy and then the EU overall.

 

At 9:30 the DJIA opened down 145, S&P -17 and NASDAQ -33. The 10 yr note 2.92% -6 bp and mortgage prices +8/32 (.25 bp). Running for the door with oil prices and gold falling. Yesterday's FOMC meeting, Bernanke's comments and the never-ending saga in Greece are piling on this morning. The 10 yr note though so far has not cracked 2.90%. The rest of the day in US financial markets will likely see increased volatility.

 

At 10:00 May new home sales, expected down 4.6%, were down 2.1%. 6.2 month supply. 319K units annualized. Median sales price $222,600 down 3.4% yr/yr. No immediate reaction in the markets on the data.

 

Although the 10 yr still hasn't pushed to test recent low yields, we will revert to floating overall except for closings occurring in the next 7 days. The Fed has finally agreed that the economic outlook isn't good and with inflation under control and Europe still slipping the bond and mortgage markets should hold. How much lower interest rates can decline is still a huge question in my mind, but there is little reason now to worry that rates will increase. The 10 yr note continues in its 10 basis point yield range. We expect market volatility to remain high for the next week or so.  

Bill Nickerson

Vice President Mortgage Network

179 Great Road Suite 214, Acton MA 01720

978-399-1313

Bill's Blog

Providing Mortgages Since 1991

NMLS # 4194

Commercial   Residential     Reverse FHA/VA

Posted via email from Bill's Mortgage News

Thursday, June 16, 2011

The Real Market News

Early this morning the 10 yr note made a new low yield at 2.88% from 2.97% at the end of yesterday on increasing concerns over Europe's debt problems headlined by Greece. The European Union’s failure to contain the Greek debt crisis is sending fresh shockwaves through currencies, money markets, equities and derivatives. The cost of protecting corporate bonds soared to the highest level since January, with credit-default swaps anticipating about a 78% chance that Greece won’t pay its debts. Equities declined around the world, while a measure of fear in fixed-income markets jumped the most since November. Market moves suggest heightened concern that authorities won’t be able to keep Greece’s debt troubles from spreading after Moody’s Investors Service said it may downgrade BNP Paribas SA and two other big French banks because of their investments in the southern European nation.

 

At 8:30 weekly jobless claims and May housing starts and permits pushed yields up as the data was better than expected; weekly claims were down 16K to 414K. forecasts were that claims would be 421K, continuing claims also fell (21K). May housing starts were about what was expected, up 3.5% with single family starts up 3.7%; April starts were revised from -10.6% to -8.8%. Building permits were thought to be down 0.5% but reported up 8.7% the highest permits since Dec 2010; multi family was the main reason for permits higher, multi-family permits jumped 23%. The two data points took the wind out of the bond market and safe haven buying that had set a new low yield on the 10 yr and had mortgage prices up 8/32 (.25 bp) from yesterday's close.

 

At 8:30 the Q1 current acc't deficit was -$119.27B lower than -$130B expected. The current account measures the United States' international trade balance in goods, services, and unilateral transfers on a quarterly basis. The levels of exports, imports and the current account indicate trends in foreign trade.

 

By 9:15 the 10 yr note yield climbed back to 2.96% from 2.88% prior to the 8:30 data, mortgage prices at 9:15 unchanged after being up .25 bp at 8:15. The DJIA futures traded had the index unchanged at 9:15 after being down 70 points at 8:15. Volatility remains high as we noted yesterday.

 

Keeping the running story going, at 9:30 the DJIA opened down 6 points, the 10 yr at 9:30 +7/32 at 2.95% -2 bp and mortgage prices very volatile this morning up 3/32 (.09 bp). Trade between 9:30 and 10:00 wasn't significant with the 10:00 Philadelphia Fed business index due. Always significant to traders, this time it is even more so after yesterday's NY Fed manufacturing report went negative indicating contraction.

 

At 10:00 continued volatility with the Philly Fed business index; the index went NEGATIVE indicating contraction. The index was expected at +8 it fell to -7.7 the second report in the last 24 hours that the economy is contracting. New orders in the June report were negative at -7.6 indicating orders declined, the employment component fell to 4.1 from 22.1 in May while prices pd fell to 26.8 from 48.3. May Philly Fed was 3.9. The initial reaction put a small bid back into bonds and mortgages but not as much as we might have thought. The DJIA at 10:06 +26, the 10 yr +9/32 at 2.94% and mortgage prices +3/32 (.09 bp).

Provided by Sigma Research

Bill Nickerson

Vice President Mortgage Network

179 Great Road Suite 214, Acton MA 01720

978-399-1313

Bill's Blog

Providing Mortgages Since 1991

NMLS # 4194

Commercial   Residential     Reverse FHA/VA

Posted via email from Bill's Mortgage News

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

What's really happening

Stocks fell in Europe for a sixth day, U.S. index futures declined and the yen strengthened as concern deepened the global recovery may slow. Copper led commodities lower, while oil dropped as OPEC meets. The US stock indexes traded weaker all morning into the open with the DJIA lower; a close lower today will be the first time since 2009 the DJIA fell six days in succession. The bond and mortgage markets benefiting as the economic outlook weakens.
 

Treasuries and mortgage markets started better, still better but have slid back from levels at 8:30; at 9:30 the DJIA opened flat after trading weaker n pre-market trade. The 10 yr note at 9:30 +5/32 at 2.98% and mortgage prices +4/32 (.12 bp).
 

OPEC was widely expected to announce production increases today, it didn't; in the meantime with the economies in Europe and the US showing signs of stalling crude is lower today. “There is still much uncertainty about the strength of the world economic recovery,” Mohammad Aliabadi, the acting Iranian oil minister and current OPEC president, said in a speech in Vienna before the group announces its decision.  OPEC was expected to raise its production quota for the first time in almost four years to help replace lost Libyan supplies and meet growth in demand later this year, a Gulf delegate said yesterday. The group last collectively agreed a production increase on Sept. 11, 2007, setting a quota of 27.253 mil barrels a day. That the group didn't increase production is evidence that there is serious divergent opinions within OPEC. The announcement came at 9:20 am this morning, crude oil was down $0.60 then spiked up $0.60.
 

It is another day with no direct economic releases; at 2:00 the Fed will release its Beige Book, the Fed staff's report on the economy in all 12 Fed districts. A lot of detailed specifics but generally about what markets already have discounted.

Mortgage applications decreased 4.0% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 27, 2011.  The Refinance Index decreased 5.7% from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index was essentially unchanged from one week earlier. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 3.0%. The four week moving average is up 1.1% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 3.8% for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 65.7% of total applications from 66.8% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.2% from 5.8% of total applications from the previous week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.58% from 4.69%, with points increasing to 1.01 from 0.69 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans. The 30-year rate is the lowest since November 2010. The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages remained unchanged at 3.78%, with points increasing to 1.07 from 1.04 (including the origination fee) for 80% loans.
 

The bond and mortgage markets will likely hold steady until 1:00 when treasury auctions $21B of 10 yr notes, re-opening the 10 yr note issued last month. Yesterday's 3 yr auction saw good demand, today's 10 yr is more crucial to mortgage rates. Strong demand will support rates but weak bidding will pull interest rates up a little. The auction and how equity markets act through the rest of the day will drive the bond market. The 10 yr note trading at 3.00% area, critical level technically and psychologically.

Sincerely,

Bill Nickerson

Vice President

Mortgage Network

179 Great Road

Acton MA 01720

978-264-4803  office

978-268-5023 fax

978-273-3227 cell

bill@billnickerson.com

NMLS # 4194

Posted via email from Bill's Mortgage News

Thursday, May 12, 2011

Mortgage Network Earns 98.86% Approval Rating!!

Published on CNBC http://www.cnbc.com/id/42856549

DANVERS, Mass., May 02, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Mortgage Network, an industry leading independent mortgage lender, today announced the results of a recent customer satisfaction survey showing that over 98% of customers would use Mortgage Network again. Also, over 98% of customers would recommend a friend. A standard that MNI believes is even harder to meet. This past year, Mortgage Network has opened five new locations and added over 100 employees to keep up with demand in targeted areas.

"We aim to give our clients the best experience possible and in order to do that, we make sure we are conscious of the opinions of everyone who walks through our doors, said Executive Vice President of Mortgage Network, Brian Koss. "Seeing this 98.86% approval rating gives us great pleasure in knowing we are doing our job. Our goal is to surpass 99% in 2011." Over 2,200 customer surveys were completed and turned in to Mortgage Network after each closing. With so many new offices opening on the Eastern seaboard, and plans for others to open in 2011, this satisfaction survey adds validation to the service Mortgage Network is able to provide to clients.

"Our goal is to be the pre-eminent mortgage lender in our markets and within the eyes of our employees, clients, peers and business partners," said Koss. "We are committed to providing the highest level of service and expertise, which consistently exceeds everyone's expectations." About Mortgage Network, Inc: Mortgage Network, Inc is a private mortgage banking company founded in 1988 by Robert McInnes and Albert Pare III who have co-managed the Company since its inception. Mortgage Network is one of the largest independent mortgage company headquartered in New England. The Company's unique combination of experience, product development, and commitment to providing great service has made Mortgage Network an industry leader. The Company has established thirty-three regional lending offices providing retail mortgage services as a National Lender.

Mortgage Network can be found on the World Wide Web at: www.mortgagenetwork.com.

Proud to Work for Mortgage Network!!!!

Bill Nickerson

Vice President Mortgage Network

179 Great Road Suite 214, Acton MA 01720

978-399-1313

Bill's Blog

Providing Mortgages Since 1991

NMLS # 4194

Commercial Residential Reverse FHA/VA

Posted via email from Bill's Mortgage News

Friday, April 29, 2011

Did you flush?

Image002
I am not a real estate broker but I have been around this business long enough to know, the last thing you do prior to a closing is the Walk-Through. The dreaded Walk-Through…. I have heard stories of the new home not being “broom clean”, food left behind in the refrigerator or even a stack of firewood that was not removed. With emotions running at high alert during the final stages of the buying process, the last thing the buyer wants or expects is to find problems during the Walk-Through.

Well…today a new one. On this “Royal” day, a very good and thorough Agent did the walk-through with his clients and proceeded to flush all the toilets one by one. Yes, you guessed it. In the process, the main sewer pipe in the basement let go. YUP, it let go and it let go of everything inside. With emotions already running high, you can imagine what the buyers were thinking and their reaction to the events that just took place.

Many years ago an agent told me the Walk-Through should almost be like a mini home inspection. Turn on everything in the home…crank up the heat, run the water, and…flush all the toilets! Luckily all will end well. The selling agent has informed the buyers that this will be resolved today which is a huge relief for everyone involved in the transaction. So the moral of the story, don’t let this “Royal” flush cause problems for your next closing. Make a checklist of to do’s for your next walk-through.

Do you have a standard check list of things you do

when performing a Walk-Through?

Please share your stories with us …. the Good, the Bad and the Ugly.

Bill Nickerson

Vice President Mortgage Network

179 Great Road Suite 214, Acton MA 01720

978-399-1313

Bill's Blog

Providing Mortgages Since 1991

NMLS # 4194

Commercial Residential Reverse FHA/VA


Posted via email from Bill's Mortgage News

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Homebuyer Turnoffs: 6 Mistakes Sellers Must Avoid

Now more than ever with so many homes on the market for sale, the seller must take action to ensure their house stands out from all the rest.  Avoid these six mistakes that are potential turn-offs for buyers which could lead to losing a sale.     

 

Turnoff mistake #1 - No listing photos

Many buyers browse listings online before deciding to view a home in person.  Great photos showing your home will draw more showings to your home.  Hire a professional photographer if possible. 

Turnoff mistake #2 - Unrealistic Pricing

It’s very tempting to list your property at the highest price possible with the intention of lowering it if there’s no buyer interest in the home.  By pricing your home competitively from the start, you will get the most traffic and the quick sale close to your asking price.

Turnoff mistake #3 - Misleading Listing Info

Describing your home accurately allows the right type buyer to look at your home.  Say it’s a ready to move in home when in reality it’s a fixer up sends the message to home buyer that you aren’t trustworthy leading to loss of sale.

Turnoff mistake #4 - Botched Home Improvements

Think a fresh coat of paint will be great to sell your home? Before investing in presale remodeling or painting, find out from your Realtor what type improvements/colors will give you a better chance at a sale.  The wrong choices could be a disaster to your hopes for a quick sale.

Turnoff mistake #5 - Dirty or Cluttered Interiors

Removing clutter and keeping the house clean sends the buyer a strong message; this home has regular necessary maintenance done to it. It also makes the home look more spacious, giving the buyer the chance to visualize the home with their own furnishings.

Turnoff mistake #6 - Hovering Homeowners

A fast way to send buyers running is for the homeowner to be present during a showing.  Buyers want to be left alone to view your home.  And the longer a buyer stays, the better chance of a sale.

Bill Nickerson

Vice President Mortgage Network

179 Great Road Suite 214, Acton MA 01720

978-399-1313

Bill's Blog

Providing Mortgages Since 1991

NMLS # 4194

Commercial   Residential     Reverse FHA/VA

Posted via email from Bill's Mortgage News

Monday, April 18, 2011

What I am Hearing in Markets

This Week; is Holy Week. Trade likely will be quiet with the religious holiday. Most all of the data points this week are centered on the housing sector; starts and permits for Mar, new and existing home sales, the NAHB housing market index Monday and the FHFA housing price index on Thursday. The only other releases are weekly claims on Thursday and the and the April Philadelphia Fed business index also on Friday. That's it for the week. Markets closed on Friday.

 

Until a week ago the overwhelming consensus in the markets was that the US economy would have a strong Q1 and optimism for the rest of the year was being touted as continued improvement. Over the past week investors were beginning to re-think the economic outlook and lowering expectations. It started with the IMF saying it is revising lower GDP Q1 growth from 2.0% to 1.5%; markets had accepted growth in Q1 at +3.0%. The Fed's Beige Book out last week, while remaining optimistic, showed indications that growth isn't as powerful as markets were thinking. The National Federation of Independent Business overall index fell in April, taking the optimism that had improved since last Oct totally away. Small businesses account for the majority of jobs. This is also earnings season with companies reporting Q1; so far earnings have been a little disappointing. 

 

Consumer spending declining, until recently, have been ignored by investors. Even with gasoline and food prices increasing markets generally didn't pay much attention----until last week. $4.00+ gasoline and rapidly increasing food prices will, as we have continued to mention, slow consumer spending. Bernanke out there saying the increase in energy and commodity prices are "transitory" may not be; markets beginning to understand that. With consumer spending less than expected and the housing markets still showing no signs of stabilizing, let alone improving, investors are getting a little nervous.  

These fluctuations in the market place, will push mortgage rates down a little for the moment.  At some point as we have been saying right along, this economy has to turn to the positive side.  When it does, mortgage rates will edge up over 5 and may never look back.

If you have any questions, feel free to call or email me anytime!!

Bill Nickerson

Vice President Mortgage Network

179 Great Road Suite 214, Acton MA 01720

978-399-1313

Bill's Blog

Providing Mortgages Since 1991

NMLS # 4194

Commercial   Residential     Reverse FHA/VA

Posted via email from Bill's Mortgage News

Friday, April 15, 2011

How To Kill The Economy

The proposed regulations governing the Qualified Residential Mortgage (QRM) exemption from risk retention rules constitute a "devastating, unnecessary and very expensive wrench (thrown) into the American dream" according to a white paper released Wednesday by a consortium of housing industry groups.

The paper was published in advance of a scheduled hearing of the House Subcommittee on Capital Markets and Government Sponsored Enterprises on "Understanding the Implications and Consequences of the Proposed Rule on Risk Retention".  Two of the groups in the consortium, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the Center for Responsible Lending addressed the committee along with other trade groups and a panel of representatives of the regulatory agencies which drafted the regulations. 

Under Dodd-Frank lenders must retain five percent of the credit risk on loans packaged and sold as mortgage securities.  However, certain qualifying mortgages will be exempt from risk retention, making loans with the QRM designation highly sought after assets by lenders.  Last month federal agencies including FDIC, the Federal Reserve, Securities and Exchange Commission and Federal Housing Finance Administration proposed QRM rules which will qualify FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans by definition and require non-agency loans to have down payments of 20% or more and Debt to Income (DTI) ratios of 28% / 36% or less.  QRM may not include products or terms that add complexity and risk to mortgage loans such as negative amortization or interest-only payments or present significant payment shock potential. While FHA and the GSEs currently dominate the lending landscape, they are expected to reduce their market share in the years ahead.  The argument presented in this White Paper is QRM rules will limit the ability of Non-Agency lenders to compete with the GSEs and FHA in the future, therefore limiting the incentive for private investors to enter the sector; making it harder for the government to reduce its footprint in the mortgage market in the process.

The White Paper takes particular exception to the 20 percent down payment requirement.   Based on 2009 home price and income data it says it would take 15 years for an average family to save the $43,000 down payment on a median priced home compared to only six years to save 5 percent to put down on the same house. This requirement, it says, would deny millions of responsible borrowers any access to the lowest rate loans with the safest loan features.  

The down payment requirement will also present a sizeable bar to homeowners hoping to refinance.  Based on data from CoreLogic, the paper estimates that nearly 25 million existing homeowners lack sufficient equity in their home to meet the 80 percent loan-to-value requirement.  Even at 90 percent LTV, 34 percent or over 16 million homeowners could not refinance into qualifying mortgages.

Analysis of CoreLogic data on loans originated between 2002 and 2008, a period which includes the loans that recently defaulted at record rates, shows that raising down payments in 5 percent increments had only a negligible impact on default rates but significantly reduced the pool of borrowers that would be eligible for QRM loans.   For example, where borrowers already met strong underwriting and product standards, moving from a 5 percent to a 10 percent down payment reduced the default rate by only 0.2 to 0.3 percent but reduced the pool of eligible borrowers by 7 to 15 percent.  Jumping the down payment from 5 to 20 percent changed the default rate by 8/10ths of a percent while knocking out 17 to 28 percent of borrowers depending on the year of the loan.    

Removing so many potential buyers from the pool of borrowers eligible for qualified mortgages "could frustrate efforts to stabilize the housing market," the report says, and to date the regulators have not put a price on the cost of risk retention to the consumer.  "This should be done before finalizing a rule that imposes 5 percent risk retention across such a broad segment of the market."  A JP Morgan Securities Inc. estimate put the cost of 5 percent risk retention at a three-percentage point rise in interest rates for loans funded through securitization.  While that estimate may be high, the report says, even a one percentage point increase in interest rates could be devastating to a fragile housing market.  The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), another member of the consortium, estimates that every percentage point increase in interest rates means that 4 million households would no longer qualify for a median priced home.  Any QRM-related costs, the report points out, would be in addition to a general interest rate increase anticipated over the next 12 to 18 months.

Any of these effects will carry greater impact in those states that have already been hardest hit by the housing downturn.  For example, in the five states that have seen the most foreclosures and greatest price decreases (Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Michigan) between 59 and 80 percent of homeowners do not have 20 percent equity in their homes.  Six out of ten homeowners would not be able to move and put 20 percent down on their next home.

These borrowers, the paper says, have already put significant "skin in the game" through down payments and years of timely mortgage payments, "but the proposed QRM definition tells them they are not 'gold standard' borrowers and they will have to pay more." 

With major regional housing markets ineligible for lower cost QRMs many states and metro areas that have seen the biggest price declines will now face higher interest rates, reduced investor liquidity, and fewer originators able or willing to compete for their business.  "These areas face long-term consignment to the non-QRM segment of the market."

The paper concludes that the proposed rules will also negatively impact the private lending market.  The vast majority of loans will be non-QRMs subject to the higher costs of risk retention and without regulations that mandate sound underwriting standards.  The statutory exemption for FHA and VA loans will give them a significant market advantage over fully private loans.  This will delay or even halt the return of private capital into the market. 

While the inclusion of GSE loans mitigates the immediate adverse impact of the rule on the housing market, it is not a viable long-term solution and does little to establish the certainty the secondary market needs.  "Rather than rely solely on a short-term fix the regulators should follow Congressional intent and establish a broadly available QRM that will create incentives for responsible liquidity that will flow to a broad and deep market for creditworthy borrowers."

Risk-retention is not a viable option for smaller institutions and will reduce the ability of community-based lenders to compete in the mortgage market.  The top three-FDIC insured banks already control 55 percent of the single-family mortgage market and this consolidation will only intensify.  "In short, the proposal creates real systemic risk while doing little to relieve it."

Congress intended QRM to provide creditworthy borrowers access to well underwritten products, provide a framework for responsible private capital to support housing recovery and to shrink government presence in the market while restoring competition and mitigate the potential for further consolidation.  Instead the proposed rule is so narrow that it will force a majority of both homebuyers and homeowners to either forego purchasing/refinancing or pay higher rates, and will hamper competition and accelerate consolidation in the market.

In addition to MBA, NAHB, and the Center for Responsible Lending, the members of the consortium are Community Mortgage Banking Project, the Mortgage Insurance Companies of America, and the National Association of Realtors®.

Bill Nickerson

978-264-4803  office

866-741-2548  fax

978-273-3227 cell

NMLS # 4194

Providing Residential Mortgages Since 1991

Posted via email from Bill's Mortgage News

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Is now a great time to buy a house.....YES!!

If your friends said you need to wear shorts and flip flops in the snow to be cool, would you be “foolish” enough to believe them?  What I find puzzling in my travels is the amount of people that listen and are guided by what they hear in the news media.  This past Friday was April fool’s Day and New Englanders were blessed with a snow storm.   Yes, blessed, for it was not a tsunami, a tornado or hurricane. I feel as though we must always look for the silver lining in any situation we come across.  While surfing the internet one can plainly see that the housing markets are being halted by what is being reported these days with the doom and gloom of whether it is time to buy or not.

Image003
 

As a mortgage professional, as well as an investor in real estate, the goal is always a buy and hold. In the case of buying a home to raise your family, you would purchase your home with the intent to own it for a period greater than 7 to 10 years which would shield you from the month to month movement of the markets and you could focus on the long terms gains.  We all know that in some areas of the country we are going to see a decrease in home values, while in other areas we will see an increase.  Here’s the catch, if you think you can catch lightening in a bottle…take the chance a home will drop 5, 10 or even 20% over the next year and hope that mortgage rates stay below 5%.  This is highly unlikely as the economy begins to build steam and move forward.  If rates move 1% higher, which is very likely, this will cost you $50,000 or greater in buying power.  For a home that is priced at $450,000 at a rate of 4.875%, is equal to a home priced at $400,000 at a rate of 5.875%.  So by waiting, you have lost time in the market place.  We do know rates will climb, that is certain, home prices in this immediate area will stay relatively flat over the next year and will.  In general, the economy is based on speculation on what economist think might happen.  Across the country, the average home price will drop.  Buyer Beware; there are always deals to be had, and now is a time where you are getting both low rates as well as low house prices.  If your intent is to buy and invest for the future, now is the time.  If you believe you can time the market and make a quick buck by flipping, you are in the wrong place. 

Bottom line…if rates go up by 1.00%, which they will, it will do no good to wait to see if house prices drop in order to get a better deal.

Don’t be an “April” fool…now is the time to buy!

Bill Nickerson

Vice President Mortgage Network

179 Great Road Suite 214, Acton MA 01720

978-399-1313

Bill's Blog

Providing Mortgages Since 1991

NMLS # 4194

Commercial   Residential     Reverse FHA/VA

Image001

Posted via email from Bill's Mortgage News

Monday, March 21, 2011

This Week in the Markets

This Week; existing and new home sales are the main focus but unlikely to show any change in the trend of weak sales that has been the situation for two years. Japan's problems with their nuclear reactors remain but the latest reports imply some progress on a couple of reactors while another reactor is weakening. In Libya the UN forces clobbered Libyan positions with heavy use of missiles but Qaddafi remains defiant. Treasuries and mortgage rates are likely to stay within a tight range as long as there is no change in the situations in Japan and in the Mideast.

 

The stock market, after the strong selling on panic moves is likely to rebound and recover most of the losses on the indexes. Gold and crude oil likely to increase in price after a volatile last week. Through the week as long as investors return to equity markets the bond and mortgage markets will see prices fall and yields increase. The week is very likely to be volatile from day to day with unfolding news out of Japan and the Mideast. We do not expect interest rates to increase a lot, but we also don't see any major decline this week. Still suggest using the recent rate decline to get deals done and not get enthused about lower rates. Interest rates are not likely to fall much while the wider perspective is still bearish as the US economy improves and the ECB likely to raise rates.

What does all this mean?? 

Buckle Up!!!!! 

The month of March is coming in like a Lion….and it may leave that way too….

Courtesy: Sigma Research

Bill Nickerson has been providing mortgages since 1991 in New England.  If you ever have any questions about mortgages or the process of buying a home, feel free to call or email anytime.

Bill Nickerson

Vice President Mortgage Network

179 Great Road Suite 214, Acton MA 01720

978-399-1313

Bill's Blog

Providing Mortgages Since 1991

NMLS # 4194

Commercial   Residential     Reverse FHA/VA

Posted via email from Bill's Mortgage News

Saturday, March 12, 2011

5 Mortgage Myths, by Trulia.com

Valuable Information brought to you by Trulia.com

In a mortgage market that changes as quickly as this one, today’s fact is tomorrow’s fiction.  For buyers, misinformation can be the difference between qualifying for a home loan or not. Sellers and owners, knowledge is foreclosure-preventing, smart decision-making power! Without further ado, let’s correct some common mortgage misconceptions.

1.       Myth: Buyers with bad credit can’t qualify for home loans. Obviously, mortgage guidelines have tightened up, big time, since the housing bubble burst, and they seem likely to tighten even further over the long-term. But just this moment, they have relaxed a bit.  In the last couple of weeks, two of the nation’s largest lenders of FHA loans announced that they’ve dropped the minimum FICO score guideline from 620 (which allows for some credit imperfections) to 580, which is actually a fairly low score.

At a FICO score of 620, buyers can qualify for FHA loans at many lenders with only 3.5 percent down. With a score of 580, the lenders are looking for more like 5 to 10 percent down – they want to see you put more of your own skin in the game, and the higher down payment lowers the risk that you’ll default.  However, if your credit has taken a recessionary hit, like that of so many Americans, this might create a glimmer of hope that you’ll be able to take advantage of low prices and interest rates without needing years of credit repair.

2.     Myth: The Mortgage Interest Deduction isn’t long for this world.  Homeowners saved over $85 billion in 2008 by deducting their mortgage interest on their income tax returns. A few months ago, the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform caused a massive wave of fear to ripple throughout the world of real estate consumers and professionals when they recommended Mortgage Interest Deduction (MID) reform, which would dramatically reduce the size of the deduction.

Fact is, the Commission made a sweeping set of deficit-busting recommendations to Congress, a few of which are likely to be adopted.  Fortunately for buyers and sellers, MID reform is not one of them.  Very powerful industry groups and economists have been working with Congress to plead the case that MID reform any time in the near future would only handicap the housing recovery.  Congress-folk aren’t interested in stopping the stabilization of the real estate market.  As such, the MID is nearly universally thought of as safe – even by those who disagree that it should be.

3.       Myth:  It’s just a matter of time before loan guidelines loosen up.  The US Treasury Department recently recommended the elimination of mortgage industry giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I won’t get into the eye-glazing details of it here, but the long and the short is that (a) this is highly likely to happen, and (b) it will make mortgage loans much harder and costlier to get, for both buyers and homeowners.   It’s possible that loans are as easy to get as they’re going to get.  So don’t expect that if you hold out, zero-down mortgages will come back into vogue anytime soon. Fortunately, Fannie and Freddie aren't likely to disappear for another 5-7 years, so you have a little time to pull your down payment and credit together. If you want to get into the market, the time to get yourself ready is now!

4.       Myth: If you don’t have equity, you can’t refi. Much ado is being made about how stuck so many people are in their bad loans, because they don’t have the equity to refinance their way out of them.  If you’re severely upside down (meaning you own much, much more than your home is worth), stuck may be the situation. But there are actually a couple of ways homeowners can refi their underwater home loans.  If your loan is held by Fannie or Freddie (which you can find out, here), they will actually refinance it up to 125% of its current value, assuming you otherwise qualify for the loan.  That means, if your home is worth $100,000, you could refinance a loan up to $125,000, despite the fact that your home can’t secure the full amount of the loan.

If your loan is not owned by Fannie or Freddie, you might be a candidate for the FHA “Short Refi” program. While most mortgage workout plans are only available to people who are behind on their loans, the Short Refi program is only available to homeowners who are current on their mortgages and need to refinance up to 115 percent of their homes’ value.  So, if you owe $250,000 on your home, you can refinance via an FHA Short Refi even if your home’s value is as low as $217,000. If you think you’re a good candidate for a short refi, contact your mortgage broker, stat – there are some in Congress who think that this program is so underutilized (only 245 applications have been submitted since it rolled out in September – no typo!) that its funding should be diverted to other needy programs.

5.       Myth:  If you’ve lost your job and can’t make your mortgage payment, you might as well mail your keys in.  Until recently, this was essentially true – virtually every loan modification and refinancing opportunity required that your economic hardship be over before you could qualify. And documenting income has always been high on the requirements checklist. But there are some new funds available in the states with the hardest hit housing and job markets, which have been designated specifically for out-of-work homeowners.

The US Treasury Department’s Hardest Hit Fund allocated $7.6 billion to the states listed below – all of which are now using some portion of these funds to offer up to $3,000 per month for up to 36 months in mortgage payment assistance to help unemployed homeowners avoid foreclosure.  Contact the state agency listed below if you need this sort of help:

•Alabama: http://www.hardesthitalabama.com/

•Arizona: https://www.savemyhomeaz.gov/

•California: https://www.keepyourhomecalifornia.org/

•Florida: https://www.flhardesthithelp.org/

•Georgia: http://www.dca.state.ga.us/housing/homeownership/programs/hardesthitfund.asp

•Illinois:http://www.ihda.org/

•Indiana: http://www.877gethope.org/

•Kentucky: http://www.kyhousing.org/

•Michigan: http://www.michigan.gov/mshda/buyers/save_the_dream/helping+hardest+hit+homeo...

•Mississippi: http://www.mshomecorp.com/firstpage.htm

•Nevada: http://www.nahac.org/

•New Jersey: http://www.state.nj.us/dca/hmfa/home/foreclosure/homekeepers.html

•North Carolina: http://www.ncforeclosureprevention.gov/

•Ohio: http://www.savethedream.ohio.gov/

•Oregon: http://www.oregonhomeownerhelp.org/

•Rhode Island: http://www.hhfri.org/

•South Carolina: http://www.scmortgagehelp.com/

•Tennessee: http://www.thda.org/

•Washington D.C.: http://www.dchfa.org/

Bill Nickerson

Vice President

Mortgage Network

978-264-4803 o

978-268-5023 f

NMLS# 4194

Posted via email from Bill's Mortgage News