This Week; of course it is still most about Europe, the saga that won’t go away, and likely not for years. Treasury rates ended last week at 1.87%. Mortgage rates continue to decline in the MBS market but lenders that buy the loans have not been pricing to the MBS market, holding prices lower than the market itself. The increased fees to finance the 2.0% social security tax cut financed by home buyers and re-financers is causing disruptions in pricing. Some lenders have used the fee increase to increase gains from originators by setting prices much lower than MBS markets trade---over and above making the price adjustments for the fee increases. Watch your lenders and compare MBS prices we report to how your lender is treating you.
This week a few key economic reports that will get traders’ attention; PPI, CPI, Philly Fed business index, Housing starts and permits as well as Dec existing home sales and weekly jobless claims all on tap (see economic calendar). US interest rate markets continue to hold well, at the same time the long end including mortgages is struggling to keep a positive bias. Europe’s travails and this week’s economic data should define whether rates will move lower. That said, with rate increases due to Congress using Fannie, Freddie and FHA to finance the social security tax cut, mortgage rates are not likely to fall much more even if US treasury markets improve somewhat. We remain skeptical on the longer term outlook for rates, rates are likely to increase a little this year with the economy improving. The wild card now is the Fed (Europe is always a wild card on a day-to-day basis); last week there were some that were floating the idea of another easing move from the Fed, still a minority view however. On the 24th and 25th the FOMC meets, likely there will be discussions on the subject.
Have a Wonderful Day!
Bill Nickerson
Vice President Mortgage Network Inc
179 Great Road, Acton MA 01720
978.273.3227
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