Mortgage rates moved more this week then they have the entire year, and of course they moved the wrong way…UP. Signs of the economy are improving, China is having a banner year, October housing numbers were far better than expected are just some of the reasons. Tomorrow the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Employment Situation Report. This is the single most influential monthly dataset shared with the market. It carries the potential to shift investment perspectives and realign outlooks.
It could be way better than expected and 30 year fixed mortgage rates could go into the 5's by the end of the day. It could be way worse than expected and rates might take reasonable steps back toward 4.25%. It could do either of those things and rates could be relatively unchanged. Or it could do either of those things and paradoxical opposite reactions could occur. The point here is that tomorrow is definitely NOT about how NFP prints compared to how economists expect it to print. It is all about how the market receives it and whether or not there are any other major news events being digested at the time (Europe is a continuing theme that comes to mind). What does all this mean?? It means, we will wait to see if all the economists out there speculated correctly and then we see how Wall Streets deciphers the news. Be prepared for a VOLITILE day in the markets, whether you are watching mortgage rates, the stock markets or even to see the Unemployment number of 9.6% changes one way or the other.
Remember, Good news in the economy…mortgage rates go up! Bad news in the economy, mortgage rates go down!
Bill Nickerson
179 Great Road, Acton MA 01720
978.264.4803 (o) 978.273.3227 (c)
Providing Mortgages Since 1991
Commercial Residential Reverse FHA/VA
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