When was the last time there was any meaningful level of interest in the Fed's Beige Book? Some economic releases, if you're not waiting for the wires, market movement will tell you something is up, prompting a check of the wires that might be hiding in that window you minimized in favor of the latest youtube gag reel of infuriating congressional incompetence. But not so with the Beige Book! In it's 2pm time slot, it can easily go unnoticed.
Today's version, however, stands a better chance to get some attention considering there's just not much by way of economic data available during the shutdown, combined with the fact that bond markets are especially desperate for economic data! Additionally, the lag time between the end of the data collection period and the Beige Book release is usually 9-12 days, meaning that today's may actually capture some of the early reaction to the shutdown. That means that this report that's typically telling us stuff we already know from the other economic data, will today have a chance to tell us something that few other reports can--maybe.
More likely, the tenor of the day will either already be in place or the spotlight will be stolen by fiscal headlines. Just when we were getting used to the idea that the debt-ceiling debate could drag on into November, politicians seem to be acquiescing to Main Street's admonishment (because Main Street is more focused on tonight's midnight deadline marking the expiration of Treasury's authority to borrow money as opposed to the actual date that we'd no longer be able to pay all our bills) and at least look like they're more serious about getting something done today. If any of the reaction to headlines over the past 2 weeks are an indication, this is supposed to be negative for bond markets.
Courtesy of Market News Dailey
